Strategic impact of the Fourth Plenum and its impact on Beijing’s polity: By Mr. Balaji Chandramohan
- Chennai Centre for China Studies
- 28 minutes ago
- 11 min read
The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Fourth Plenary Session was convened from October 20–23 2025 which has got strategic and historic connotation. 1
The fourth plenary meeting was one of the most important ones of the party in its five-year cycle between the 20th and the 21st Party Congresses scheduled for 2027, because it set the strategic direction for the coming period, especially in relation to the next Five Year Plan, which in this case covers the period 2026-2030.
The session also heard a report from the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and review the proposals for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) for national economic and social development.
Plenary sessions or plenums of the CPC are key points in China’s policy-cycle and has wider strategic impact both internally and externally. The Fourth Plenum was used for matters of governance, institutional reform or major policy shifts.
In fact, they have usually focused on party governance, but since Xi Jinping pushed back the previous Third Plenum from 2023 to mid-2024, the CPC used the Fourth Plenum this year to approve the next Five Year Plan.2
Fourth Plenum and 15th Five-year plan
It’s noted that CCP plenums are always mostly political affairs, but this year’s Fourth Plenum is notable for its focus on the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan scheduled in the near future.
As revealed in signalling documents, including the Fourth Plenum’s communique and recommendations, the 15th Five-Year Plan’s agenda is to intensify China’s “high quality” development in the period from 2026-2030.
However, the Fourth Plenum’s emphasis on further intensifying China’s technological development is bound to invite more countermeasures from the United States, and therefore lead to increased confrontation with a China determined to fight on in the better part of the 21st century.
Though it has become mandatory in China to emphasize every utterance from Xi, in line with the need to fully implement “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in a New Era,” it would be a mistake to treat the emphasis on the plenum communique as simply propaganda.3
Therefore, In China’s context, the document’s summary of China’s current and future economic situation was actually a political statement. The communique warned everyone in China that the country is facing a “stage where strategic opportunities coexist with risks and challenges, and uncertainties and unpredictable factors are increasing.”
It is in this political context that China-U.S. fifth trade and tariff consultations acquire greater significance. First, unlike the previous four rounds of consultations, which were all held in the West, this round was held in Asia, much closer to Beijing. Second, this was also the first high-level contact between Chinese and U.S. officials after the Fourth Plenum ended. 4
Of course, neither Xi Jinping’s resolve to achieve China’s tech supremacy nor the U.S. efforts to crush China’s high-tech economic development are new trends but it’s seen in the near future.
On the other hand, the “Made in China 2025” plan was implemented in response to the first U.S. attempt to contain China, the “pivot to Asia” that was undertaken during President Barack Obama’s second term. The plan went on to thwart successfully all subsequent U.S. containment efforts – from Obama to Trump to Biden and now Trump 2.0 – and achieved Xi’s initial aim to put China on the path to becoming the world’s techno-industrial superpower.
It’s noted that the focus of China’s 15th FYP is “self-sufficiency” and “advanced manufacturing,” which, , is tantamount to “China gearing up for more tech confrontation with the United States.” Within China, however, experts explain that in order to understand the Fourth Plenum’s emphasis on intensifying technological development in the new Five-Year Plan, it is important to read carefully a previously unseen formulation: “socialist modernization can only be realized through a historical process of gradual and ongoing development.” 5
Earlier, when preparations for the 13th Five-Year Plan were underway, China unveiled ‘Made in China 2025,’ a decade-long industrial blueprint aimed at transforming the country’s manufacturing sector from labor-intensive to technology-driven through two five-year plans. In both the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans, technological innovation was accorded unprecedented importance in the layout of the documents. The Made in China 2025 Project was embedded to the Belt Road Initiative Project.
The “Made in China 2025” plan being implemented, a new initiative was announced in late 2023 that focused on a new growth model for China’s economy and society, with the aim to achieve rapid scientific and technological innovation and the upgrading of traditional industries. The initiative, an emphasis on so-called new quality productive forces, has since emerged as a key concept in China’s economic strategy, appearing in official statements, policy documents, and high-level government meetings. First mentioned by Xi Jinping during a visit to Heilongjiang province in September 2023, the term “new quality productive forces” subsequently appeared during the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2023 and in the Government Work Report at the Two Sessions in March 2024.
Meanwhile, in tandem with the launch of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2021, China also unveiled Vision 2035, outlining objectives for the next 15 years. In Xi’s view, 2035 is a crucial milestone, representing the first step of the CCP’s current “two-step” strategy, which aims to achieve basic socialist modernization.6
In sum, as Xi has been repeatedly emphasizing, 2035 is a crucial milestone toward achieving the culmination of the second hundred-year goal in 2049 (the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China). It was fully twelve years ago, at the 2013 National Conference on Organizational Work, that Xi very clearly defined a new yardstick for evaluating improvements in livelihoods, social progress, and ecological outcomes. Scholars in China have since relentlessly reiterated: “it is only a matter of time before social development, rather than economic growth, becomes the principal focus of future five-year plans.”
It’s understood that the CCP’s Fourth Plenum communique emphasized further intensifying “high quality” development in order to enable China to achieve technological advancement. There are obvious domestic drivers behind this push. But the more China races toward achieving techno-industrial supremacy, especially in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, the more it will be regarded in Washington as an existential threat to the United States leadership.
Given the political importance of its goals, China is in no mood to back down but to improve it’s strategic calculus. That was the message the Fourth Plenum implicitly conveyed to the U.S. negotiators, and this too was not a surprise. As the CCP and its leaders, including Xi, have on more than one occasion dared the U.S. leadership: “If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war, or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”
The fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), held in Beijing from 20 to 23 October, was the last major political gathering before the launch of the 15th Five-Year Plan to be announced in the two sessions in 2026. Hence, the communique adopted at the session goes well beyond short-term economic adjustments. It positions the meeting as the bridge between the closing phase of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the preparation of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) — a stage that will lay the groundwork for China’s basic modernisation by 2035.
The plenum opens with a sober assessment of the changing environment. China, it notes, faces a “period in which strategic opportunities coexist with risks and challenges, and uncertainties are increasing”. Externally, sluggish global growth, rising protectionism and fragmentation of supply chains threaten export stability. Domestically, the economy continues to grapple with weak consumption, debt overhangs and a need for deeper supply-side reforms.
Against this backdrop, the Fourth Plenary re-anchors the 15th Five-Year Plan around a few central propositions. First is the reaffirmation of stability with progress as the overarching policy guideline. Second is the consolidation of “the real economy as the foundation of national development”.
Also there is the acceleration of “high-level scientific and technological self-reliance”, now positioned as the core driver of new quality productive forces. Together, these themes illustrate Beijing’s determination to safeguard economic security, maintain industrial autonomy and move up the global value chain.
Perhaps the most emphatic section of the communique concerns industrial policy. It declares that China must “put the focus of economic development on the real economy”, pursuing the path of intelligent, green and integrated growth. The document explicitly calls for building a “modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone” and for maintaining a “reasonable proportion of manufacturing”.
This emphasis is not new, but the context is different. With global supply chain restructuring and Western industrial reshoring accelerating, China’s leadership perceives manufacturing resilience as a matter of national security. 7
The communique’s commitment to build a powerhouse in manufacturing, quality, aerospace, transport, and cyberspace reflects clear continuity with the Made in China 2025 and New Industrialisation initiatives — but with sharper emphasis on sustainability and technological convergence.
A second pillar of the communique is the pursuit of “high-level technological self-reliance and self-strengthening”. It links this directly to the global technological revolution, urging China to “grasp the historical opportunity of a new round of scientific and industrial transformation” and to “enhance the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system”.
In practical terms, this entails deep integration of education, science and talent policies — what the communique calls the “three-in-one advancement”. By elevating “original innovation” and “breakthroughs in key core technologies”, the leadership seeks to secure control over strategic nodes in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, biotechnology and new materials. The document’s reference to “new quality productive forces” encapsulates the goal of transforming China’s growth model from factor-driven to innovation-driven.
Earlier, during the 14th Five-Year Plan, China placed innovation at the forefront, promoting the development of new quality productive forces through sci-tech innovation and its integration with industrial transformation.
Substantial improvements in scientific and technological self-reliance and strength are one of the major objectives for the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
The country should achieve greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology and steer the development of new quality productive forces, said the communique, urging efforts to coordinate the development of education, science and technology and talent cultivation, and enhance the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system.
It also called for strengthening original innovation and breakthroughs in key core technologies, promoting the deep integration of sci-tech and industrial innovation, and advancing the building of a Digital China.
China has consistently adhered to a people-centered development approach, adopting pragmatic measures in improving people's livelihoods, ensuring that the basic living needs of all people are met, and working hard to resolve the pressing difficulties and problems that concern them most.
According to the fourth plenary, China will work harder to ensure and improve public well-being, including strengthening the inclusive, basic and bottom-line protection of livelihoods, improving the social security system, and expand equal access to basic public services.
On the other hand, in the face of a complex international landscape and mounting challenges, China's growth – particularly driven by deepening economic transformation – represents an unprecedented achievement, given its vast economic scale though there are vast fissures appearing in it’s economic growth.
The fourth plenary also called for efforts to refine its regional economic layout and promote coordinated regional development.
This meeting serves as both a systematic review of the past five-year cycle and a comprehensive, forward-looking, and strategic design for the coming "critical five years." This means China, on its journey toward building a great country and achieving national rejuvenation on all fronts, will enter a critical period of making decisive progress toward basically achieving socialist modernization - guided by clearer top-level planning and more robust institutional support.
The scientific formulation and policy deployment of 15th Five-Year Plan represent a new mobilization and overall arrangement for advancing Chinese modernization. Focusing on building China into a modern socialist country in all respects and realizing the Second Centenary Goal, China upholds the Party's overall leadership, puts the people first, pursues high-quality development, comprehensively deepens reform, promotes the sound interaction between an efficient market and a capable government, and coordinates development with security. These six "commitments" both summarize China's developmental experience and chart the strategic direction for the future. With a strong problem-oriented and systematic approach, they consider both internal and international imperatives, placing greater emphasis on autonomy, security, and sustainability in development.
The formulation and implementation of the five-year plans epitomize China's governance capacity. Looking back on the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period, China faced the accelerated evolution of profound global changes unseen in a century and the severe challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, 17 major strategic tasks, 102 key projects, and more than 5,000 specific programs were fully implemented. Economic growth advanced in tandem with green transformation, innovation factors continued to converge, and the well-being of the people continued to improve.
Meanwhile , China's industrial structure continued to optimize and upgrade, with emerging sectors such as high-end manufacturing, the digital economy, and green and low-carbon industries thriving. The innovation-driven development strategy was implemented in depth, accelerating the convergence of innovation factors such as talent, technology, and capital, and injecting strong momentum into the cultivation of new quality productive forces.
At the same time, consensus on the top-level design for the 15th Five-Year Plan has been built through extensive consultation and democratic deliberation within the CCP and through the stake holders.
The convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee signifies that China is taking more determined steps and has a clearer direction on its new journey toward comprehensively building a modern socialist country. A China that is more efficient in governance, more harmonious and stable in society, and more vibrant in its economy will undoubtedly stand confidently and openly in the East. It will also be able to collaborate with countries around the globe, using greater wisdom and strength to promote the establishment of an open world economy, uphold international fairness and justice, promote shared values for all humanity, and jointly address global challenges, working hand in hand to create a better future for all.
The Fourth Plenum, in particular, is often pivotal — it typically addresses institutional reforms, political control, and long-term governance priorities. This year, however, the focus shifted firmly towards economic resilience, technological autonomy, and national security, reflecting both the gravity of China’s domestic slowdown and the turbulence of its external environment.
Fourth Plenum and Civil Military Relations
At its core, the 2025 Fourth Plenum reaffirmed Xi Jinping’s centrality and ideological supremacy within the Party, while embedding the tenets of his “New Era” socialism into the blueprint for China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). The message was clear: the next decade will not be about liberalisation or market experimentation. It will be about fortifying China’s political system and economic model against what Xi called “raging storms” — a metaphor that has become shorthand for Western containment, technological sanctions, and domestic vulnerabilities.
Even with ambitious aims, structural constraints remain: demographic decline, youth employment, productivity growth, and the need for genuine market functioning. There is the continuing need to find the balance between state control and market dynamism. Then there is the issue of the international environment – technology restrictions, supply-chain fragmentation, and global instability will put pressure on China’s plans.
According to the plenum communique, China at present remains in a phase of development where strategic opportunities exist alongside risks and challenges, while uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising. 8
Conclusion,
In conclusion, the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC marks an important moment in China’s current political economy cycle. By adopting the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing technological self-reliance, reaffirming party discipline and signaling continuity in strategic orientation, China is positioning itself for what it terms the “crucial period” ahead for socialist modernization.
References:
China's Fourth Plenum: The party's most secretive gathering explained ( CNBCTV, October 20,2025)
China’s Fourth Plenum: How will Beijing’s secretive meeting shape the global economy? ( First Post, October 29,2025)
Manoj Joshi, China: Why the CPC's Fourth Plenum Was No Routine Meeting ( The Wire, October 28,2025)
Srikanth Kondapalli Chinese Communist Party's Fourth Plenum signals political flux and economic challenges ( Deccan Herald, October 26,2025)
In its rivalry with the US, China sees an advantage: the long game ( CNN, October 24,2025)
Xinhua Headlines: CPC plenum concludes, adopting recommendations for China's 15th Five-Year Plan ( Xinhua, October 23,2025)
Sonny Lo Shiu Hing Opinion – China’s Fourth Plenum and its politico-economic and military implications ( Macau Business, October 25,2025)
China’s leaders’ meeting confirms Xi’s authority and shows technological self-reliance is now the priority ( Chatham House, October 28,2025)
With Fourth Plenum, Xi Jinping Dares the US to Fight ( The Diplomat, October 20.2025)
https://thediplomat.com/2025/10/with-fourth-plenum-xi-jinping-dares-the-us-to-fight/
(Balaji Chandramohan is a research expert. The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the views of C3S.)
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