C3S Paper No. 0161/2015
Presentation to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade, Parliament House, Canberra, August 18, 2015
There are four main drivers behind China’s policy of constructing artificial islands in the South China Sea: nationalism, fisheries, hydrocarbons and strategic imperatives. Strategic imperatives are the most important. China seeks to counter the Obama Administration’s policy of re-balancing towards the Asia-Pacific by developing sufficient military power to dominate the first island chain running south from Japan, Okinawa, Taiwan, and the Philippines. China seeks to dominate the South China Sea to protect its sea lines of communications and to secure its southern flank against intervention by the U.S. Navy and Air Force. China’s artificial islands in the centre of the South China Sea will serve as forward operating bases for Chinese fisheries and hydrocarbon industries as well as maritime law enforcement agencies. More importantly, the infrastructure on these artificial islands will support a growing military presence in the future. China has not just changed “facts on the ground” but is altering the regional naval balance of power. This presentation concludes by arguing that present U.S. and Australian policies are unlikely to dissuade China from its current course of action. In summary, China is slowly and deliberately excising the maritime heart out of Southeast Asia.
China’s Perspective: U.S. Rebalancing is About Containing China
China’s Counter-Intervention Strategy
Dominate the 1st Island Chain and Protect China’s Southern Flank in South China Sea
China’s Power Projection Capabilities Are Growing
Major Naval Base on south of Hainan Island – dock enlarged for aircraft carrier
Strike Range from Yulin Naval Base
China’s Forward Operating Bases in the South China Sea
Infrastructure-building on Artificial Islands in the Spratlys
China: Extension of Runway on Woody Island, Paracels
China’s Construction on Fiery Cross Reef
Mischief Reef
China’s Construction on Cuarteron, Gaven, Hughes and Johnson South Reefs
Cuarteron Reef
Malaysia: China Maintaining a Permanent Presence near Luconia Breakers
(Reprinted with the permission of the author. Carlyle A. Thayer is Emeritus Professor, The University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra and Director of Thayer Consultancy registered in Australia. email: Carlthayer@webone.com.au)
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