Water Disputes in South Asia: By Shilpa Susan John

Image Courtesy: Peace for Asia

Water has become a source of peace and conflict all over the world. It is calculated that by 2030 the total freshwater will be available only to 60% of the world population and South Asia will be a major region that will severely suffer from water scarcity. Even though the  mighty Himalayas are a source of many of the transboundary rivers in South Asia such as Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra, due to climate change, countries like India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh are facing water crises that eventually lead to disputes over domination of water resources. These water conflicts in the region are a combination of geopolitical and ecological in nature. 

Major Bilateral and Multilateral Water Disputes

1.  India- Pakistan Contestation over the Indus River Basin

The Indus river is a transboundary river that flows majorly through India and Pakistan. It originates from the Tibetan plateau and is one of the longest rivers in the world with a length of 3,500 km and the drainage area covering around 1165,000 square kms. The contest for the Indus water began right after the partition of 1947, where the political boundary between India and Pakistan was drawn as the watershed of the Indus River. This gave India control of the upstream barrages that regulated the flow through Pakistan. This demarcation also created upstream- downstream hierarchy for its tributaries and eventually created tensions between the two countries. 

Following a decade of prolonged negotiations, under the mediation of the World Bank, India and Pakistan signed the Indus Water Treaty in 1960. Under this treaty the control of the three eastern flowing tributaries of Indus - Ravi, Sutlej and Chenab, was granted to India and the control of the western tributaries- Indus, Jhelum and Bias to Pakistan. As per  the  Ecological Threat Report 2025, the Indus Water Treaty is the major conflict resolution mechanism and point of cooperation between India and Pakistan for around 60 years. The Pahalgham terrorist attack resulted in the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty by the Indian counterpart. 

In a short span of period, this will not affect Pakistan’s water supply but India is planning for exploring projects that could reduce the downstream flow over time. Such developments have serious implications in Pakistan. Around 80% of agriculture depends on  Indus water. The country also depends on Indian upstream data for flood, drought forecasts. A disruption in this information exchange or a reduction in river flow could critically undermine Pakistan’s hydropower generation, drinking water access, and overall food security.

2. Issues over India- Bangladesh over River Ganga and  Teesta 

The Ganges is also a transboundary river originating primarily from the Gangotri glacier in Himalayas. After merging with numerous tributaries, it takes the name Ganga and flows across India before entering Bangladesh. The water sharing disputes began right after India built the Farrakka barrage in the 1960s that diverted the flow of the Ganges to reduce the silt developing in the Kolkata port. This resulted in severe consequences in the downstream Bangladesh through decreased availability of water that resulted in drought, increased salinity, decreased ground and surface water levels, degraded fisheries sector and polluted water resources that adversely affected the public health. 

As a result of discussions from both parties, the Ganges Water treaty was signed between India and Bangladesh in 1996 focused on the volumetric distribution of Ganges water based on the flow data from 1948 to 1988. According to the treaty, during every year’s  lean period, that is from January 1st to May 31st, water will be shared equally at Farakka for the two countries for the period of thirty years. The treaty has been criticised for reasons like the vague nature and absence of proper dispute resolution mechanism. In spite of the treaty, Bangladesh still faces water scarcity during the drought and overflooding during the monsoon. According to assessments by water scientists covering the period from 1996 to 2016, Bangladesh did not receive its right share of water during the critical summer months, contrary to the provisions of the treaty. Various concerns like arsenic poisoning due to over ground water extraction and drying up of ecological sensitive Sunderbans are also there.  The issues of drought and flooding are also persistent in Indian states like Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal.

Teesta River Dispute is another area of contention between India and Bangladesh. The River originates from the Zemu glacier in the Himalayas and flows through Indian States of Sikkim and West Bengal before entering into Bangladesh and meets with Brahmaputra and eventually drains into Bay of Bengal. Around 20 dams and hydropower plants are built on the river, most of it by India.  This restricts the flow of water upstream affecting the flow through Bangladesh thereby reducing the irrigation of around 100,000 hectares of land. According to experts Bangladesh requires 5000 cusecs of water but receives only around 1500- 2000 cusecs flow during the dry season. In 2011, a draft agreement proposed that Bangladesh would receive 37.5% of the water while India would retain 42.5%. However, the accord remained unsigned following objections from the state of West Bengal.

3. India- Nepal over Kosi, Gandak and Mahakali

India and Nepal share various transboundary rivers like Kosi, Gandak and Mahakali (Sarda). Various agreements for water sharing were signed between India and Nepal over the time. The Kosi Barrage Agreement, signed in 1954, aimed to regulate and utilize the river as a major transboundary water resource serving both countries. The Kosi river was a source of frequent flooding and devastation in Bihar and nearby states. Though through the barrage the floods were controlled to an extent, various issues underlined in the treaty. The agreement provided India with gains, leading to concerns in Nepal regarding the management of water resources and the potential environmental consequences of the barrage There were also concerns regarding the sovereignty of water resources and equitable draw of water during the dry season. On similar lines was the Gandak River Project that was signed in 1959 that aimed to reduce flood effects in Nepal and Bihar and also explore the possibilities of  irrigation and generation of hydroelectric power for both the countries.  In 1996, India and Nepal signed the Mahakali Treaty, focused on the integrated development of the Mahakali River which encompasses the Sarda Barrage, Tanakpur Barrage, and the proposed Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project. The treaty was also criticised for the strategies that India took for legitimizing its  unilateral measures of building Tanakpur barrage. The delay in the implementation of the treaty also created standoff  in India- Nepal water cooperation.

4. India - China- Bangladesh over Brahmaputra

The Brahmaputra/ Yarlung Tsangpo became an area of contention between India and China. Originated from the Chemayungdon glacier in Tibet, it flows through the Tibetan plains and takes the Great Bend before entering into India, and flows through North East Indian states and enters Bangladesh as Jamuna before joining to the Bay of Bengal. The river is the source of livelihood for a large population as it carries fertile soil to its banks. China’s decision of the Mega Dam project at the Great Bend has created concerns for India as well as Bangladesh. Due to its strategic location, China as the upper riparian  state could control the flow of the water towards India. Similar concerns are there for Bangladesh which is a downstream country regarding lower flow that will affect its agriculture and livelihood. The project involves construction of five hydro power stations with an approximate investment around $167 Billion. The potential of the dam is that China could use it as a weapon to create droughts as well as floods during the hostility period. 

5. Emerging Pakistan- Afghanistan contention on Kunar River 

Recent Pakistan, Afghanistan clashes have resulted in Afghanistan building a dam across Kunar river which is a transboundary water source  between the two countries. The 480 km Kunar river originates from the Hindukush mountains in Afghanistan-Pakistan border, which enters Pakistan as Chitral river where it joins with Kabul river. The building of dams and restriction of flow towards Pakistan could affect the country severely. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) region, which depends heavily on this river for irrigation would be directly affected, increasing the risk of crop failures. Moreover over 20 small hydropower projects in Pakistan’s Chitral district rely on the uninterrupted flow of the Kunar River. Any obstruction of its waters would disrupt electricity generation from these installations.

Environmental and Ecological Concerns 

South Asia is one of the water stressed regions in the world. A recent report released by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) showed that the Himalayan region experienced lowest snow persistence in 23 years, that is the duration of snow on the ground. This is a consequential threat to availability in river systems like Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Earlier cautions were also there like 80% of the region’s glaciers could vanish by the beginning of the coming century, affecting long term effects in South Asian water resources.

Water scarcity is a crucial issue that results in problems like depleted access to clean sources of water  that leads to the spread of water borne diseases and lack of irrigation that leads to reduced agricultural outputs that eventually affects food security across the region. Moreover, the growing water scarcity across Asia is expected to fuel disputes over the allocation of transboundary river resources, heightening competition among nations for access to water.

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The dam and barrage construction creates ecological  issues like disturbing the natural flow of the water sources that affects the downstream regions through floods, water stress and drought. It gives the upstream states a favourable advantage over the lower stream ones.   The construction of Great Bend Dam by China creates serious ecological concerns, once it is created it might result in irreversible changes that could happen in the Tibetan plateau. India’s plan to counter building a mega dam in Arunachal Pradesh creates ecological risks as well. The region is vulnerable to destructive earthquakes and landslides and dam failures that threaten life as well. 

Conclusion

India is the prominent power in South Asia and has capability of solving the water disputes in the region, but due to political pressures from centre and states are restraining it from doing so. For instance the Teesta water sharing agreement of 2011, has not been formalised yet despite having high level talks due to the opposition from States especially West Bengal. The Ganga Water Treaty is set to expire in 2026 and talks for the extension of the treaty are going on between the two countries. The renewal should also include provisions for climate change and shortages during the dry season. Even though Bangladesh lies in the delta of one of the largest river systems formed by Ganga, Brahmaputra and Teesta, it greatly faces struggles of  water scarcity during dry season and floods during monsoon. These extremes, combined with upstream water diversions and climate-induced changes, have made water management a persistent struggle for Bangladesh. Recently Bangladesh signed the 1992 UN Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and became the first South Asian country to join the treaty. This will eventually escalate the water disputes in the region especially with India.

India has been viewed as the dominant power in managing water relations with its South Asian neighbors due to its advantageous upstream position in most of the cases. However, China is now using India’s stand in these matters to strengthen its own ties with the region, often to India’s disadvantage. Nepal is water dependent with its economy highly indebted to hydropower projects. The bitter experience with India has led Nepal to increased cooperation with China and Bangladesh.

Water has increasingly become a tool of contention among countries, driven by political, economic, and geographical factors. In South Asia, the absence of a unified regional framework for water governance has escalated tensions, as most of the region’s major rivers are transboundary in nature. To address these challenges, countries must adopt sustainable and climate-resilient approaches to water management that promote cooperation and long-term regional stability.

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(Shilpa Susan John is a Research Officer at the Chennai Centre for China Studies. The views are expressed are those of the author and does not reflect the views of C3S.)