C3S ISSUE BRIEF 36/26 - Demographic Constraints on China’s Grand Strategy.
By Pruthvi G More, Research Intern, C3S
Guided By Prof. Ramu Manivanan
Abstract
Traditionally, a nation’s Grand Strategy is evaluated by considering external indicators of power such as its overseas ports, navy or its investments abroad. However projection of power externally is possible only when the foundation back home is strong. For a long time now, China’s active rise has heavily banked upon “demographic dividend”. A huge and young workforce led it to gain the title of the “manufacturing hub of the world”. But now, it is left bereft of that advantage. With the year 2025 recording an all time low of 8 million births, its working population is shrinking year by year. China’s demography is on a declining
trajectory.
To analyze the effect of this decline, this paper seeks to analyze, first, the financial tradeoff between the growing cost of tending to an aging population and the massive cost of military power projection and expansion. Second, it looks at the technology gap and whether China will be able to automate fast enough to compensate for the dipping workforce to keep its economic engine running. Finally it attempts to forecast if China will rush to accomplish its regional goals in this rapidly closing demographic window or turn risk averse and scale down its global ambitions.
Read the full Issue Brief below:
(Pruthvi G More is a Research Intern at C3S. The views expressed here are of the author's own and do not reflect the views of C3S.)
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