Occasional Paper 8/26: Emerging US-China Space Rivalry and Weaponization Threat

By Subramanyam Sridharan, Distinguished Member, C3S.

An occasional Paper is a single topic research summary of the knowledge surrounding an issue or a problem. It summarises the issue giving clear, concise, and complete information describing all facets of a particular issue including a detailed illustration in the form of images, data, and facts. It also includes recommendations for action and predictions on the future course of an issue.

Introduction

The ‘Unmanaged Great Power Competition’ between the US and China for the ‘sole superpower’ status has spilled over from Earth-centric issues to the realm of Space, the ‘final frontier’. Space Technology has always been dual-use ever since its birth in the 1950’s. Both the US and China (and the former USSR) developed their first orbital launch vehicles from artillery rockets and ballistic missiles (BM). The US launched its first satellite aboard Redstone ballistic missile and its first astronauts on the suitably-modified Atlas ICBMs. The first Chinese launch vehicle, Long March-1, was derived from its Dong Feng-4 IRBM/ICBM. Thus, the nuclear and space ages coalesced almost from their beginning. Since then, it has always been impossible to distinguish between civilian and military space programs, even if the civilian side of a nation’s space program (like NASA’s) was apparently kept aside from the military side (like the Pentagon’s). In the case of China, there is not even such a fig leaf of separation. Only in the cases of India and Japan, their satellite launch vehicles were developed entirely by civilian efforts from ground-up. As we shall see further in this paper, technologies developed for civilian use of space have seamlessly transferred to its weaponization also.

Author's Email ID: raptorss@gmail.com

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(Mr. Subramanyam Sridharan, is a Distinguished Member of C3S. The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not reflect the views of C3S.)