By Maj.Gen.Rajiv Narayanan AVSM VSM (V), Former ADGMO Army Headquarters, Former Defense Attache, Embassy of India, Tajikistan
CSF-SICCSL RRU-NMF Two-Day Conference on
Xi Jinping’s Third Term: Implications for
Global Order & India
Commissioned in Dec 1978 in the Poona Horse, the General retired after over 37 years of distinguished service in Feb 2016, as the ADGMO, in Army HQ. An Alumni of DSSC Wellington and DSCSC Mirpur, Dhaka. During his service he has commanded one of the oldest Cavalry unit of India, an Armoured Brigade and a Mountain Division opposite China. He has seen service along India’s both Western and Northern Borders. An avid follower of International Relations & Geo-Politics for over three decades, a multi-dimensional security expert and an avid China watcher for well over two decades. He had the opportunity to serve as the Defence Attaché in the Embassy of India Dushanbe, Tajikistan during the turbulent period post 9/11 from Oct 2003 to Mar 2007 and as the Additional Director General of Military Operations (B) for the last three years of service. Post retirement, from April 2017, he worked with the USI of India, initially as a Distinguished Fellow, and then as the Head of Research, from 01 January 2020, till he voluntarily stepped down on 01 November 2020. He is currently a Professor of Practise with IIT Madras, a Member of the Chennai Centre for China Studies, and a Member of the Indus International Research Foundation.
Abstract
‘You fight your way and I’ll fight my way’
------Mao Tse-tung
The above is an apt way to describe the way the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) military wing, The Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA), fights. Verily like a Dragon, as the PRC (Peoples’ Republic of China) is depicted, it burns its target nations before posing a military threat from the PLA. It hereby combines two philosophies, that of Chairman Mao, as mentioned above, and of Sun Tzu – that the acme of Generalship is to win without fighting or that a good General should ensure victory before joining battle.
The ongoing modernisation of the PLA would be assessed in this light, its evolving military strategies, multi-domain Unrestricted Warfare Strategy (URW), and how far has it reached in its cognitive domain operations through its Three Warfares Strategy. It analyses why Xi considers India the main threat to achieving the first phase of the ‘China Dream’ in Asia and assess his likely policies against India, in generating multi - domain threats to it during his unprecedented third term.
Based on the above, the paper provides some recommendations for India’s decision-making hierarchy, capital expenditure process, changes in the structures in the military, and evolving strategies to counter these multi-domain threats.
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